Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 82632.558042 87233.835442 91834.785147 96777.346810 101933.333690 107150.031258 112823.793987
2025-03-02 74684.026146 81702.669031 88919.274328 96883.818764 105416.969282 114274.688613 124154.035484
2025-03-09 69905.944149 78641.550111 87820.803758 98164.286524 109473.796625 121442.386810 135044.407720
2025-03-16 65194.156399 75109.502827 85722.326246 97892.263497 111426.281899 125979.515464 142775.589198
2025-03-23 62463.634462 73452.385021 85401.168400 99308.142374 114996.414273 132093.014958 152078.634304
2025-03-30 59851.091964 71703.446584 84776.878870 100197.651524 117817.294350 137248.010448 160220.625262
2025-04-06 57133.341905 69651.936251 83645.723054 100358.101814 119679.789147 141220.759102 166952.518738
2025-04-13 54590.739107 67655.191617 82443.316168 100310.092251 121193.630249 144711.240772 173072.131385
2025-04-20 53167.035807 66877.511973 82573.210586 101734.501660 124350.831857 150048.372327 181299.393109
2025-04-27 51849.487271 66146.626778 82689.821818 103084.234099 127377.295447 155211.144211 189325.391569
2025-05-04 50280.155301 65035.033760 82286.690545 103757.282862 129559.306430 159360.197963 196159.665566
2025-05-11 48476.770808 63561.567190 81380.796457 103764.964628 130897.880326 162481.275422 201765.554175
2025-05-18 47005.889911 62462.328015 80904.927207 104283.232625 132859.560176 166375.053130 208354.890377
2025-05-25 45432.659603 61179.619938 80157.027503 104429.689481 134344.661810 169690.528067 214266.213258
2025-06-01 44564.913168 60745.307539 80423.174773 105797.424745 137304.146082 174779.841284 222332.508720
2025-06-08 42957.021456 59311.562471 79392.927342 105509.878221 138192.951857 177339.293354 227329.992895
2025-06-15 42286.034550 59051.331448 79811.569912 107014.611010 141289.760050 182592.474094 235630.085019
2025-06-22 41400.541910 58477.950496 79804.473826 107959.685226 143676.290809 186975.687558 242883.344389
2025-06-29 40217.321757 57474.194274 79212.098182 108130.150408 145068.143039 190121.567882 248617.106047
2025-07-06 38998.528440 56383.811617 78472.294818 108079.151911 146154.637553 192873.918527 253862.408499
2025-07-13 38510.289689 56248.516771 78955.464404 109592.214706 149225.558270 198109.160504 262223.347352
2025-07-20 38014.519228 56083.301894 79384.463011 111025.730364 152194.797811 203229.077814 270469.494596
2025-07-27 37248.246031 55525.457120 79275.478986 111740.478280 154231.607853 207177.256094 277261.300353